-Analysis-

TURIN — Is he about to make the same mistake he made three years ago? In February 2022, Vladimir Putin ultimately decided to invade Ukraine only after convincing himself that neither the United States nor the European Union would do anything to thwart his plans.

There was every reason for him to believe so: the Americans didn’t show him the slightest sign that they would react, and the Europeans — in any case duly informed by Washington of the significant mass of Russian soldiers on the border with Ukraine — did not want to be convinced of the reality of the danger.

“They won’t do anything, I can go,” the Russian president appeared to tell himself. He was of course completely mistaken about the strength and speed with which the West would rush to Kyiv’s defense. 

That blindness has cost him and Russia dearly. The United States immediately delivered weapons to Ukraine. The Europeans were even more reactive, and quickly began to equip themselves with a common defense system. 

On the ground, the only real change Putin managed to impose was the formal annexation of territories formerly controlled by pro-Russian secessionist movements. His navy has been decimated in the Black Sea, and after the strong stimulus of increased military spending, his economy is now showing serious signs of difficulty.

Toll of aggression

For Putin, the toll of this aggression has ultimately been catastrophic. And yet he has now refused the hand Donald Trump extended to him. The American president was willing to recognize the annexation of Crimea, to admit the fait accompli of the integration of Donbas into the Russian Federation, to cut off all aid to Ukraine, and to close the doors of the Atlantic Alliance to Kyiv. 

Trump aimed unusually sharp criticism at Vladimir Putin, telling a cabinet meeting he was getting increasingly frustrated with the Russian leader: “We get a lot of bullshit thrown at us by Putin, if you want to know the truth,” Trump said. “He’s very nice all the time, but it turns out to be meaningless.”

On Thursday, Russian launched another 400 drones and 18 missiles on Ukraine in an “an obvious build-up of terror,” said Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Moscow’s sustained assault is now injecting new urgency into questions surrounding Washington’s commitment to defending Kyiv.
Just when he was losing ground, Washington offered Putin the chance to save face… And what did he do? He refused. His demands remain maximalist. He wants the demilitarization of Ukraine and the replacement of Volodymyr Zelensky with one of his own men. He wants to secure an indisputable victory that will allow him to establish a protectorate over what was once the empire of the tsars, and by doing so, he wants to intimidate the whole of Europe. 

In short, he is convinced that he is strong enough to decline what was a clear opportunity to sign a deal between America and Russia behind the Europeans’ backs.

WORLDCRUNCH.

BERLIN, July 11 (Reuters) - NATO will need more long-range missiles in its arsenal to deter Russia from attacking Europe because Moscow is expected to increase production of long-range weapons, a U.S. Army general told Reuters.
Russia's effective use of long-range missiles in its war in Ukraine has convinced Western military officials of their importance for destroying command posts, transportation hubs and missile launchers far behind enemy lines.
  
"The Russian army is bigger today than it was when they started the war in Ukraine," Major General John Rafferty said in an interview at a U.S. military base in Wiesbaden, Germany.
"And we know that they're going to continue to invest in long-range rockets and missiles and sophisticated air defences. So more alliance capability is really, really important."
The war in Ukraine has underscored Europe's heavy dependence on the United States to provide long-range missiles, with Kyiv seeking to strengthen its air defences.