Who is winning the Russia-Ukraine war?
“Without the US it is impossible to change the balance. [And over time] it will push the balance to Russia. We will still be alive but we will pay a huge price.”, a senior Ukrainian official told the Guardian.
The Ukraine war resembles a fight between two mortally wounded champions, each one wounded in a different way. Ukraine is running desperately short of soldiers and ammunition; Russia is facing a slow but inevitable economic collapse.
The world is watching: who of the two antagonists is going to break down first, thereby enabling the opponent to claim victory and survival?
Russia’s problems are less visible than those of Ukraine. The situation resembles that of France and Germany at the end of World War I: France was destroyed by years of heavy battles on its own territory, especially along the Somme and Marne rivers; Germany had not experienced any destruction and yet, it lost the war, much to the surprise of the hawks among its population. (The surprise resulted in a decade of stubborn German efforts to undo the Versailles treaty and, ultimately, gave rise to Hitler. But this is a different story)
Russia launched 273 Shahed drones in one night, the Ukrainian Air Force said, predominantly targeting the central Kyiv region.
A sign of weakness: sending 273 disposable drones instead of attacking with an army of 273 tanks, or else. Still, the figure 273 shows that Russia is making a desperate effort within the limits of its potential to impress on Ukraine and its Western allies that the “21 years” of war it promised to conduct are no empty threat hiding weakness.
The fact that Russia feels it is now necessary to beef up its military presence along the Finnish border is another sign of nervousness and goes at the expense of its potential in the Ukraine war.
Today we share alarming evidence – in the form of extensive satellite imagery – that Russia is shoring up its military presence to threaten Nato’s eastern flank. It’s a concerning indication of where Putin’s swollen army could be moved after a ceasefire in Ukraine.
Speaking to The Telegraph, Finnish officials said that so far, the build-up is small scale. But it is likely being done in preparation for tens of thousands of troops and military assets to be redeployed in the event of a ceasefire in Ukraine. “We joined Nato, so we anticipated this,” said Maj Gen Sami Nurmi, chief of strategy of the Finnish Defence Forces. The military, he said, is watching Russia’s movements closely. “What we are seeing are the preparations for the future” when Russia will bring back the forces fighting in Ukraine, he said. “But the troops on our borders will grow.”
Marc DeVore and Alexander Mertens explained in Foreign Affairs that Russia, hitting the limits of its war economy, will be forced to invade other countries and loot their riches in order to finance its excessive armaments and warfare expenses.
War leads to more war, for this and other reasons. In the desperate situation into which Putin has steered Russia, peace is no option anymore. A sad destiny for Ukraine: learning to somehow survive in a permanent war, hoping for Russia’s economy to implode.
Burkhart Fürst Update(German) Major General Christian Freuding: Putin can no longer win this war militarily. This is also shown by the minimal forward movements of the Russian army in recent months and years. Bridget Brink, who recently resigned her post as US Ambassador to Ukraine: Interest rates in Russia are at 21%. Inflation's at 10%. Russia's economy is really hurting, and Putin's looking for ways to relieve that pressure, and that's why he's dragging out this process and dragging out this war. If he were as strong as what I think he wants to portray, he would have been successful a long time ago. So Russia's much weaker than people think, and Ukraine is much stronger. “It is not our war,” said Vice President JD Vance earlier. Reprising his role as the harbinger of very bad news for European security, Vance held out again this remarkable non-threat: that the United States might pull out of the war – presumably from both diplomacy and aid to Ukraine – unless Russia takes steps toward a peace deal it adamantly does not want. Washington backing off is exactly what Russia yearns for, and to earn this dream outcome, it seems Putin has to do absolutely nothing, bar continue to wage a brutal war.Russia Has Started Losing the War in Ukraine
Putin Trapped in Ukraine
Although the Kremlin has claimed some nominal territorial gains, Russian forces are yet to cement any major breakthroughs. In particular, the battle for Pokrovsk has typified the slow-moving war of attrition this conflict has snowballed into, taking tens of thousands of lives in the process.
Western estimates suggest Russian casualties are nearing one million. With Ukrainian drone strikes multiplying and morale on the home front waning, Putin is locked in a war of attrition with no clear exit.
Ukraine, for its part, has refused to break. Despite being outmanned and outgunned, it continues to innovate on the battlefield. The shift from conventional warfare to strategic, asymmetric tactics—particularly in drone and cyber warfare—has kept Russia from consolidating its hold on occupied territories. And while Ukraine’s economy suffers, its people remain fiercely defiant.
This resilience is not born of political calculation, but of survival instinct, reinforced by the brutality of Russian occupation.
Diplomatically, the Kremlin’s options are narrowing. Russia has failed to drive a wedge between Washington and Europe. On the contrary, the U.S. and newly assertive Germany, under Chancellor Friedrich Merz, have hardened their stance.
Moscow’s hopes of exploiting divisions in the West have largely evaporated, not least because of its well-documented indiscriminate bombing campaigns and scorched-earth tactics. Some reports even suggest that Putin’s generals are lying to him about the situation on the ground.
National Security JournalRussia has reportedly incurred approximately a million casualties since launching its invasion of Ukraine, leaving Russian President Vladimir Putin oblivious to the full extent of the losses his troops are facing.
According to Western intelligence, Putin may believe he is on the winning side due to his generals presenting him with an overly "optimistic" picture of the war's progress. The civilian economy in Russia is showing strain after three years of conflict, with oil revenues falling "well below" the levels required by Putin to sustain his military endeavors, say experts.
Despite widespread economic hardship among Russian citizens, Putin maintains a belief in his victory and demands "completely unreasonable" conditions for the cessation of hostilities, according to intelligence officials.
Russia expert Pleitgen (Frederik Pleitgen, correspondent CNN) warned against overestimating the effect of European economic punitive measures. The mood prevailing is not only very good in Moscow government circles, but also in parts of the Russian economy. They are less concerned about new sanctions and are instead thinking about how to take advantage of opportunities presented by the change in US policy. “They see themselves on the verge of being back on the American market,” said the journalist, describing his impressions from conversations with Russian entrepreneurs.
There is also no need to hope regarding Putin's age and state of health, he added. After six bilateral meetings in one day, the Russian president made a good impression on him, Pleitgen reported from a press conference in the Kremlin. “He certainly seemed fitter than me,” said the 48-year-old media representative about the 72-year-old Putin.